U.S. citizens are called to vote for a battery of midterm elections, the most important of which will involve Capitol Hill.
On November 8, the polls will determine the composition of the House of Representatives and the Senate for the next two years and, by extension, the margin of maneuver of the current tenant of the White House.
WHAT IS AT STAKE? The House of Representatives is renewed in its entirety every two years. Its 435 seats are apportioned according to the population of each state, with California having 52 congressmen and Wyoming, the least populated territory, having only one.
Currently, the Democrats control this legislative body thanks to their 220 seats, eight more than the Republicans, which allows Biden’s party to approve without complications any project or even to promote initiatives such as the investigation for the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
The Senate, on the other hand, is renewed by thirds, with two seats per state, regardless of its population. Each senator serves a six-year term and, on this occasion, 35 seats from a total of 34 states are at stake.
The Upper House, which has among its powers to endorse or overturn public offices or judges appointed by the President of the United States, is currently divided, with 50 seats for each of the two major parties. However, the Democrats technically control it, since the tie-breaking vote rests with the Senate Presidency, exercised by Biden’s ‘number two’, Kamala Harris.
WHAT CAN HAPPEN? Controlling at least one of the chambers is key for any of the parties, since it allows them to promote their own legislative agenda and hinder that of the other party. The president, however, has leeway to enact or veto laws emanating from Congress.
The polls take nothing for granted, although the most likely scenario points to a Republican victory in the House of Representatives. If so, Biden and his supporters would lose the ability to promote some of the measures he has promised to push through, such as enshrining abortion rights in federal law or introducing new controls on the sale of assault weapons.
The Republican Party would also be able to reverse the trend of the last elections in a key context, prior to the 2024 presidential elections, and would have one of its members as the third highest authority in the country. The current minority leader in the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, is the most likely option to preside over the body.
In the Senate, the Democrats have ‘a priori’ more options to retain control, although everything indicates that there will be no major imbalances in favor of either party. If the Republicans were to surprise and also control the Upper House, Biden’s political stability would be complicated, and he would only have to resort to the veto tool and hope for better luck two years from now.
Without either of the two chambers under his control, the president would be forced to focus on issues that do not depend so much on the endorsement of Congress, such as foreign policy proposals, if he wants to leave a significant legacy in his final years or strengthen his campaign for potential reelection in the 2024 presidential elections.
OTHER ELECTIONS In addition to the legislative elections, 36 states will hold gubernatorial elections. The polls show mixed results for the parties, so that the Democrats can win back Massachusetts and Maryland and the Republicans Nevada, Wisconsin and even Oregon, where the emergence of a third candidate has marked the race.
There will also be local elections in dozens of cities, while more than a hundred state-level measures will be put to a vote. Several states will vote on proposals that could restrict abortion rights, and the total list includes initiatives on guns, gambling or marijuana -five states are considering its use for recreational purposes.
