Tuesday’s explosion on a farm in Poland and the subsequent death of two people has raised all the alerts in NATO, although for now the messages from the leaders of allied countries are all about caution. Neither the Polish government nor any major power has blamed Russia directly, beyond linking this dangerous incident to the escalation of attacks on neighboring Ukraine.
The Ukrainian war had already crossed borders in recent months, but never before had a projectile hit Atlantic Alliance territory. Article 5 of the organization’s statutes provides for the collective defense clause, which involves all member states in the event of an attack against one of them, but Poland is currently considering invoking Article 4 and opening consultations.
The Prime Minister of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki, urgently summoned the top security officials, but late in the day appealed for «calm» and «prudence» while awaiting clarification of the origin of the shells which fell in Przewodow, near the Ukrainian border, and which have claimed the lives of two people. Polish President Andrzej Duda admitted that there was no conclusive evidence.
Ukraine, on the other hand, did point the finger directly at Russia through its top officials, including the president, Volodimir Zelenski, who called for «action» after the «Russian missile attack». Not in vain, the incident was part of the largest wave of bombardments launched by Russia on Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion in February, with about a hundred missiles fired on Tuesday alone.
The Baltic countries also quickly joined the Ukrainian thesis pointing the finger at Russia, but not the rest of NATO members, who after an intense round of contacts both with Poland and among themselves have seemed to conclude that, at this stage, nothing clear can be inferred as to the authorship of the shots.
The incident has surprised part of the heads of state and government of the Alliance in Bali, where the G20 summit has been held, and meetings and calls have been constant on Wednesday. Common support for Ukraine and criticism of the Russian offensive, but caution as to what it would mean to raise political tension to thresholds that had not yet been reached.
U.S. President Joe Biden, one of the first to speak to Warsaw while it was still early morning in Indonesia, has acknowledged that it is «unlikely» that the projectile that fell in Poland was fired by Russia. «There is preliminary information that puts that in doubt,» he said.
For his part, the Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, has opted for «clarifying exhaustively» how the explosion occurred, while the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak, has advocated «establishing the facts» before going any further, hours before a meeting of allied countries at ambassadorial level.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who spoke with Morawiecki, said it was time to «verify the facts and consider the next steps,» but added: «It is a confirmation of the seriousness and consequences of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.»
Moscow’s version is to claim that everything is a «provocation» to escalate the conflict by involving NATO. Former President Dmitry Medvedev, one of the most belligerent Russian leaders, has said on Twitter that the event in Poland proves that «the West is approaching a world war».
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, one of the few who maintains relatively frequent contacts with Russia, has assured that he has no reason to distrust the arguments offered by Moscow in the last hours and has pointed from Bali to the possibility of «a technical error».
On the sidelines of NATO, the Chinese government has once again dodged any accusations with a generic message to «all parties» to act with calm» and «restraint», in the words of the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Mao Ning, according to official media.
CALLS FROM KIEV The G20 summit concluded with a stronger message of support for Ukraine than expected, although it was not a joint communiqué given that Russia remains a member of the group. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov left the summit on Tuesday evening, so he did not respond on the spot to the incident in Poland.
In Kiev, however, everything points to the fact that the event, regardless of its circumstances, will serve to insist on the demands for greater support to its international partners, especially when the wave of attacks on Tuesday again caused fatalities and power outages in large cities, including Kiev.
The Minister of Defense, Oleksi Resnikov, recalled that Kiev has already been asking for months for a no-fly zone, «because the sky has no borders», not even for «uncontrolled missiles». Several high-ranking Ukrainian officials have also recalled that Ukraine’s future depends on full integration into the EU and further strengthening ties with NATO, from whose members it is demanding military support.
