The Republican Party is one step away from regaining control of the House of Representatives after Tuesday’s mid-term elections, although the expected Republican «wave» is far from becoming a reality, as the majority in the Lower House could be very narrow and the outcome in the Senate is yet to be decided.
So far, each of the two parties has secured 48 seats in the Senate, which was renewing one third of its members on Tuesday. The Republican Party needs 51 senators to secure a majority, while the Democratic Party needs 50 because of the casting vote of the vice-president, Kamala Harris, as president of the House.
In the House of Representatives, which is completely renewed, the Republican Party has 204 safe seats, to the 176 of the Democrats. Whoever reaches 218 is guaranteed control of the House. The final result could take days to be known due to the vote by mail, recounts and possible judicial appeals.
Since World War II, on average the party in control of the White House has lost 26 House seats: Barack Obama lost 63 in 2010 and Donald Trump, 40 in 2018.
With these data in hand, the polls have failed in their attempt to predict the outcome of these ‘midterms’ and analysts took for granted that concerns about crime and inflation would be the tailwind that would give the Republicans a clear victory.
The U.S. press is already speaking bluntly of surprise when referring to the elections and highlights the unquestionable defeats of the initiatives submitted to referendum to tighten abortion advocated by the Republican leader, Donald Trump, and his supporters.
Voters in Michigan, California, Vermont and Kentucky have supported pro-choice measures in rejection of what the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) has called an «extremist attempt to permanently ban abortion.»
Also significant is John Fetterman’s victory in the race for a Senate seat in Pennsylvania, defeating Republican celebrity and physician Mehmet Oz. In Wisconsin, the Republican candidate, Ron Johnson, did manage to revalidate his mandate despite being one of the declared targets of the Democratic Party and its candidate, Mandela Barnes.
A PITTERING RESULT Despite the joy at the much better results than predicted by the polls, Democrats have little reason for optimism, as confirmation of Republican control of the House of Representatives will severely undermine President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda.
A new showdown over the spending ceiling could be on the horizon, with a Republican Party inclined to limit government borrowing, which could severely limit Biden’s plans. It could also trigger a flurry of committees of inquiry against Biden and his administration for their performance under Kevin McCarthy as the new Speaker of the House.
One of the possible keys to this surprise would be turnout, which has grown significantly in states such as Georgia, where Senate candidates Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker will have to wait until the runoff vote, scheduled for December 6, to find out who will have a reserved Senate seat in Washington.
Also pending are the results in Arizona and Nevada, where incumbent Democratic senators could be unseated by their Republican rivals to give the Grand Old Party, as it is colloquially known, control of the Capitol’s upper chamber.
Florida has been confirmed as a bastion of the Republican Party, with the victories of Governor Ron DeSantis, Trump’s possible rival in the primaries for the 2024 presidential candidacy, and Senator Marco Rubio, one of the most important voices of the party on immigration issues and foreign relations with Latin America.
