The categorical refusal of one of the most prestigious conservative magazines in the US, ‘National Review’, to Donald Trump’s new candidacy for the White House — a huge headline with a resounding «NO» in its editorial on Tuesday — is not entirely representative of Republican sentiment regarding the possible return of the tycoon, one greeted more warmly by his voter base and the congressmen he raised during his term than by the ‘barons’ of the party.
According to a Pew Research Center poll dated November 14, approximately 60 percent of Republicans maintain a favorable opinion of Trump, whose popularity remains intact among the population over 50 years of age, and has only dropped sharply in two areas: the percentage of Republicans who remember him with «extreme affection» and among the population of college graduates. Trump returns, in general terms and according to the institute, with support almost intact, but in a «colder environment» and less receptive to any outrage he might commit.
These figures come two years ahead of the presidential election and still a year away from the Republican primaries that will occur between February and July 2024, during which time the situation could change drastically. In fact, the ‘National Review’ itself was against Trump’s participation in 2016 before giving a relatively positive assessment of the first two years of his presidency.
Another more conservative media than the ‘National Review’, such as ‘The Federalist’, has not yet openly pronounced itself on Trump’s decision and prefers to keep the options open when choosing between the former president and what could be his great rival for the primaries of 2023, the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, the new winner of the local elections of November 8 by 20 points of difference against his Democratic rival.
«If (Republicans) want to get back to enjoying victory and the exercise of political power to protect their interests and promote their ideal of nationhood, they should look elsewhere,» writes columnist Nathanael Blake in ‘The Federalist’. «Specifically, they should look to Florida, where DeSantis is apparently gearing up and can contrast the crushing margin of his victory with the trumpeting of many of Trump’s preferred candidates,» he adds.
By contrast, the editor-in-chief of the also openly Republican ‘Washington Examiner’, Hugo Gordon, declared the end of the Trump Era after the party’s drubbing in a disappointing congressional election. «Have Americans had enough of Donald Trump? Have voters had enough of Donald Trump? Has he passed his sell-by date? Yes, yes and yes,» he wrote.
«Trump’s allies performed worse than the rest of the GOP candidates and that means one thing: you can finally say the emperor is naked,» he added.
A PARTY AGAINST THE MAGNATE Within the Republican Party, the only ones who have been in favor of Trump’s return have been those closest to his ultra-nationalist movement, seriously wounded right now in the midst of an investigation against the former president for allegedly encouraging the January 6, 2021 insurrection on Capitol Hill.
Standing out above all are Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican from Georgia, or her colleagues from Texas, Troy Nehls and Arizona, Andy Biggs, who directly declared Trump as «the leader of the Republican Party». Voices of some weight in the party and not necessarily associated with this movement, such as South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham have applauded his decision to run. «If he keeps this up, it will be hard to stop him,» he has indicated.
Outside this group, however, numerous heavyweight Republicans have declared Trump’s candidacy a threat to the party. «Repeating a defeat is not only stupid. It’s a gift to the Democratic Party. We have to turn the page,» said outgoing Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who lost in the summer primary to ‘Trumpist’ Dan Cox. Cox was swept in the Nov. 8 election by Democrat Wes Moore, who led him by 30 points.
Even former staffers in Trump’s own administration also questioned his choice to run, including former White House strategic communications director Alyssa Farah. «She is a totally unfit choice for office and a clear and distinct danger to democracy,» she wrote on her Twitter account.
RETURN TO THE PAST Despite this skepticism, the polls are far, far from giving Trump as a basket case. The former president has comfortably led all the polls on the Republicans’ favorite candidate for the White House right up to the congressional elections.
In fact, one of the most recent polls, conducted by YouGov two days after the election, only gave DeSantis a seven-point lead over Trump (42 percent to 35 percent) despite his recent win in Florida.
Trump, it should be remembered, is practically a system of his own within the Republican Party, and the possible incorporation of future Republican candidates (such as Florida Senator Marco Rubio or Texas Governor Greg Abbott), could dilute the figure of DeSantis in a diffuse set of «rivals» such as those that the tycoon already eliminated without problems before coming to power.
For the moment, the Republican Party is more intent on absorbing the result of the legislative elections and concentrating on its reinforced opposition against the White House. «The first thing DeSantis is thinking about right now is governing Florida,» Republican strategist Brett Doster told NPR, «because every political science student knows that a good career is built on good government.
In the meantime, they will leave in the hands of the conservative media the campaign of harassment and demolition before public opinion against the Biden Administration and the Democratic Party, with a view to future elections, knowing that messages such as the one conveyed by the editorial team of ‘National Review’ on Trump’s return — «To paraphrase Voltaire after attending an orgy: once is an experiment, twice is perversity» — can change sign in just a matter of months.
