The electoral victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has put an end to an electoral campaign lasting more than two months, marked by tension in the face of an unprecedentedly polarized social and political panorama. The short distance between the support he obtained (50.9%) and that of his opponent, the hitherto president Jair Bolsonaro (49.1%), reflects a country split in two.
This appointment at the polls had been presented as historic, since two opposing political projects were facing each other for a Brazil that is trying to deal with a very complicated economic panorama after the ravages of the pandemic, with record rates of inflation, unemployment, inequality and hunger.
The first round of these elections, held last Sunday, October 2, predicted Lula da Silva’s victory with 48.43 percent of the support and a distance of more than five percentage points over the then incumbent president. However, several polls published in the following weeks fueled optimism in the ranks of Bolsonaro, who has turned out to be the first Brazilian president to fail to be reelected.
After practically all pollsters underestimated the former military officer’s support in the first round, Lula da Silva’s victory did not seem to be guaranteed in the second round, so the last few weeks have been the scene of a fierce confrontation between the two candidates.
Bolsonaro has tried to associate the Workers’ Party with corruption, since Lula da Silva came to spend a total of 580 days in jail for crimes of this nature, convicted by Judge Sergio Moro, who later became Bolsonaro’s minister. In addition, he has advocated continuing his policies of recent years, privatizing state-owned companies, investing in the Police and the Army and promoting the family.
On the other hand, Lula da Silva has bet on economic recovery together with social measures and has championed the great advances that took place in this area during his governments between 2003 and 2010. The PT representative has become the first Brazilian president to face a third term in office, thanks to the support received at the polls, in the elections with the highest turnout in the country’s history.
However, it has not been a quiet day. During this Sunday the Superior Electoral Court had to pronounce itself in view of the danger that the right to vote was being violated after the Federal Traffic Police, led by an avowed Bolsonarist, carried out more than 500 interventions to vehicles transporting voters in areas considered favorable to the leftist candidate.
This was in breach of the express order issued by the president of the same Court, Alexandre de Moares, who had forbidden any such action «so as not to hinder the voting». Electoral observers have shown great concern for these events and the Minister of Justice himself has expressed his perplexity for these facts, however the Electoral Tribunal has downplayed their importance and has refused to extend the voting hours.
After the closing of the polling stations at 17.00 hours, a frenetic recount has begun, which in two hours has reflected the will expressed in the ballot boxes. With 84.33 percent of the vote counted, at around 7 p.m. the victory of the union leader, whose victory was confirmed hours later by the Electoral Tribunal, was confirmed.
The news has triggered the congratulations of dozens of international leaders who have celebrated the new conquest of the left in the American continent. The presidents of Argentina, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Uruguay, United States, Canada, Spain and France, as well as the High Representative for Foreign Affairs of the European Union, have rushed to ‘toast’ Lula’s triumph.
The protagonist of the night, in his first appearance as president-elect, pledged to govern for all Brazilians and denied that there are two separate Brazils, pledging to work for the country to advance in respect, equality and freedom in the midst of a festive atmosphere. His followers filled Paulista Avenue in front of the Sao Paulo Museum of Art to celebrate his victory.
In his speech, he mentioned the pillars that will guide his government’s policies as of January 1, 2023, such as the fight against inequality and hunger, unemployment, protection of the Amazon, rural producers and small entrepreneurs, and the curbing of violence against women.
On the contrary, Jair Bolsonaro has remained silent and has not made any publication, neither have his close associates, which has once again raised alarms about the possibility that he may try to delegitimize the results and mobilize his supporters against the president-elect. Anonymous citizens who supported Bolsonaro have claimed to be in mourning on their social networks and have spread a crepe with the country’s flag.
Brazilian citizens have also elected the representatives of 12 states, among which Sao Paulo stands out, where Tarcísio de Freitas, Bolsonaro’s ally has prevailed over the Workers’ Party. However, the latter has recognized the expression of the ballot boxes and has stated that in order to be able to carry out public policies in the state «it will be fundamental the alignment and understanding with the federal government».
Other politicians close to Bolsonaro have also recognized the sense of the vote, such as the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira or the governor Ibaneis Rocha (MDB). Although, the Brazilian federal deputy Sargento Conçalves has referred to Lula da Silva and the Workers’ Party as «the devil» in a sentence broadcast live on a social network.
Although, regardless of what Bolsonaro’s reaction ends up being, it is clear that Lula da Silva is going to have to face a markedly conservative Congress in which the Liberal Party has the largest bench of 96 seats. In the Senate, the winner of the presidential elections will find a similar scenario, since Bolsonaro’s party has 14 of 81 seats.
However, it is to be expected that the hostilities will escape from the institutions and transcend to the social level, since almost half of the Brazilians had bet on the continuity of Jair Bolsonaro. Therefore, it seems that Lula da Silva’s main challenge will be to develop effective policies that will mitigate the climate of polarization and make him gain public recognition. Although recovering the 80 percent acceptance rate he enjoyed when he left the presidency in 2010 is a complicated task.
