Final Israeli television polls ahead of the November 1 legislative elections leave the bloc led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the verge of a majority, with 60 of the 120 seats that make up the Knesset, and in what would mark its triumphant return to the political front line.
The polls of Channel 12, Channel 13 and the Kan channel coincide in that the great alliance led by the Likud party and in which the ultra-right and ultra-nationalist parties enjoy an important presence, is only one seat away from acquiring the majority necessary to form a government, compared to the 56 seats that the current coalition of the Prime Minister, Yair Lapid, would obtain. The remaining four seats would go to the joint Arab-majority, non-aligned Hadash/Ta’al list of Ayman Odeh and Ahmad Tibi.
Netanyahu’s Likud would win the largest number of seats, between 30 and 31, followed by Lapid’s Yesh Atid. Above all, however, the far-right alliance Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, with the participation of Itamar Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power and the anti-LGBT Noam, which is related to the former Prime Minister’s bloc, would become the third largest party in the Knesset, with some 14 or 15 seats.
In fourth place (10-11 seats) would be the National Unity alliance formed by Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White, which has joined forces with Justice Minister Gideon Saar’s New Hope and former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Hamajane Hamamlajti.
Faced with the possibility that Lapid’s bloc will not win the seats necessary to obtain a majority, Gantz has positioned himself as a possible new prime minister and has advocated the creation of a coalition leaving the ultra-Orthodox parties off Netanyahu’s radar.
However, sources close to Yesh Atid have assured that the formation «will never sit in a government led by Gantz» and have indicated that these are «fantasies.» «It is only a matter of time before Gantz accepts the fact that Lapid is the leader of the bloc and that he will be the one to form the government,» he said, before insisting that «if he wants to bring in the ultra-Orthodox he will have to bring in the bloc as a whole.»
The ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah parties, also aligned with Netanyahu, would obtain between 8 and 7 seats, to 5 or 6 for the secular and right-wing Yisrael Beytenu. The center-left Labor party would move between 5 and 6 seats; the leftist Meretz with 4-5 and finally Raam, the United Arab List, would get four seats, according to the polls collected by ‘Times of Israel’.
If Labor or Meretz obtain less than 3.25 percent of the support needed to enter Parliament, Netanyahu’s bloc would almost certainly have a parliamentary majority.
